MarketMoodz
TD Cowen Names Pinterest Top Smidcap; $38 Target Implies 83% Upside
TD Cowen picked Pinterest as its best Smidcap idea for 2026, assigning a $38 price target that implies roughly 83% upside from current levels. The buy case centers on AI-driven ad growth via Performance+, accelerating user growth and an expansion into connected TV audiences.
Key Takeaways
- TD Cowen set a $38 target for Pinterest, implying about 83% upside versus the current price.
- Pinterest reported 631 million monthly active users (MAUs), up 11% year over year in Q1.
- Management says roughly 30% of lower-funnel revenue flows through Performance+, its AI-driven ad suite.
- The stock is down about 25% year to date and roughly 75% from its 2021 peak, though it rose ~13% in the latest quarter and ~3% over the last month.
- Analyst coverage is mixed: LSEG shows ~19 buy ratings and ~20 holds, while firms including Rothschild have issued downgrades citing monetization limits.
People Involved
- John BlackledgeTD Cowen analyst and author of the $38 target
- Jason HelfsteinOppenheimer analyst
- Joseph BarkerRothschild analyst who downgraded Pinterest to Neutral
Entities Involved
- Pinterest (PINS)Visual discovery platform and the stock under coverage
- TD CowenResearch firm naming Pinterest its best Smidcap idea for 2026
- LSEGData provider cited for analyst consensus and target comparisons
- OppenheimerResearch firm providing supportive analyst commentary
- RothschildResearch firm that downgraded Pinterest to Neutral
- tvScientificConnected-TV company Pinterest reportedly acquired to broaden CTV access (verification limited)
MarketMoodz Analysis
TD Cowen’s $38 target reframes Pinterest from a beaten-down growth name to a high-upside Smidcap idea, hinging on two execution points: faster monetization of its growing user base and broader advertiser adoption of AI-driven ad products. The numbers are stark—631 million MAUs (+11% YoY) and management’s claim that Performance+ already handles roughly 30% of lower-funnel revenue give the thesis a revenue-lever argument; if Performance+ adoption keeps climbing, revenue per user could reaccelerate and justify a multiple expansion from current depressed levels.
That upside sits against clear headwinds. The stock is down ~25% YTD and roughly 75% from its 2021 peak, reflecting weak digital ad demand and skepticism about Pinterest’s ability to capture ad budgets from Meta and Snap. The recent quarter’s ~13% gain and ~3% monthly lift show momentum can snap back, but the path to a meaningful re-rating depends on macro stabilization in ad spend and demonstrable incremental revenue from initiatives like the reported tvScientific acquisition for connected TV—an outcome that remains to be fully verified and measured.
Investors should watch three data points over the next 6–12 months: sustained Performance+ uptake and its effect on revenue per user, MAU trajectory and engagement trends versus peers, and early monetization from connected TV offerings. Analyst coverage is split—about 19 buys versus ~20 holds per LSEG—and that divergence highlights the binary nature of the bet: execution and ad-market recovery could produce outsized returns, while prolonged ad weakness or failure to monetize new channels would keep multiples depressed. The recommendation carries significant uncertainty and depends on both company execution and broader ad-market dynamics.
Source: Original Article