MarketMoodz
Oil Tanker Traffic Climbs Through Hormuz After U.S.-Iran Deal
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have risen to about 4.8 million barrels per day since the U.S.-Iran deal, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC. Roughly 20 tankers carrying some 35 million barrels have exited the Persian Gulf—an increase that eases immediate supply risk but remains well below prewar flows of about 15 million barrels per day.
Key Takeaways
- Kpler data cited by CNBC show Hormuz flows near 4.8 million barrels per day since the U.S.-Iran agreement, the highest level since the Feb. 28 attack.
- About 20 tankers carrying roughly 35 million barrels have exited the Persian Gulf through Hormuz since the deal.
- Kpler reports Iranian tankers accounted for about 21 million barrels leaving Hormuz in June.
- Around 51 million barrels have exited on ships loaded since late April, but some vessels were not Iranian-flagged and had transponders off, so totals may be higher.
- The Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the threat level to 'moderate' after listing it as 'critical' on June 4; reports of an IMO evacuation plan and a U.S. Navy blockade lift have not been independently verified.
People Involved
- No specific individuals mentioned
Entities Involved
- KplerPrivate analytics firm tracking tanker movements and trade flows
- Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)Regional maritime security monitor that adjusted threat levels for transits through Hormuz
- International Maritime Organization (IMO)UN maritime agency reportedly planning evacuation support for seafarers in the Persian Gulf
- U.S. NavyNaval force reported to have lifted a blockade on June 18; this claim is not independently verified in available notes
- U.S. Department of the TreasuryReported to have waived sanctions on certain oil sales through August; this claim is not independently verified in available notes
- Islamic Republic of IranState actor and origin of some tanker cargoes transiting Hormuz
MarketMoodz Analysis
For investors, the uptick in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reduces an immediate supply shock tail risk that had been priced into crude markets since the February attack. Higher flows—about 4.8 million barrels per day per Kpler—should trim the risk premium on Brent and WTI, all else equal, and could ease upward pressure on refining margins and freight rates. Energy and shipping stocks may see volatility as insurers and charterers reassess route risk; a durable drop in security concerns would favor lower insurance premia and narrower tanker freight spreads.
Context matters. Prewar flows were roughly 15 million barrels per day, so current volumes remain well below typical throughput and leave the market sensitive to new disruptions. Kpler’s tracking shows about 51 million barrels loaded since late April and roughly 21 million barrels attributed to Iranian tankers in June, but some recent sailings involved vessels with transponders off and non‑Iranian flags, complicating verification. Several operational claims—such as a June 18 U.S. Navy blockade lift and an IMO evacuation plan—appear in reporting but were not independently corroborated in the notes, so treat those items as unverified drivers rather than settled facts.
What to watch next: weekly flow updates from Kpler and JMIC bulletins for security reclassifications, Brent/WTI price action and the speed of any decline in insurance costs, and official statements from the U.S. Treasury about sanction relief or waivers. Market participants should also track cargo destination data (most shipments are likely headed to Asia) and vessel transparency indicators—transponder activity and AIS tracking—because opaque sailings add upside risk to the oil-risk premium. Any reversal in flow or fresh security incidents would quickly reopen the price and shipping risk dynamic.
Source: Original Article