MarketMoodz
Bitcoin Lags Nasdaq by Biggest Margin Since 2019
Bitcoin has fallen sharply relative to the Nasdaq-100, creating the widest gap since March 2019 as traders rotate into equities and options strategies. The crypto is about 35% below its relative-strength peak versus the Nasdaq-100 from nearly a year ago, while the Nasdaq rallied roughly the same amount—leaving a roughly 70 percentage-point divergence and noticeable bearish option flows.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is down roughly 35% from its relative-strength peak versus the Nasdaq-100, while the Nasdaq-100 rose about 35% over the same period.
- The Bitcoin–Nasdaq gap stands near 70 percentage points, the widest since March 2019.
- Bitcoin's market capitalization is about $1.3 trillion.
- Options activity shows a bearish tilt: ThinkOrSwim data cited ~100,000 puts versus ~37,000 calls, with the 100-strike put expiring June 18 most traded.
- Coinbase options trading saw more than twice as many calls sold as bought in a recent session, signaling dealer or investor selling interest.
People Involved
- No specific individuals mentioned
Entities Involved
- Bitcoin (BTC)Digital asset at center of the story
- Nasdaq-100Tech-heavy equity index driving the market rally
- Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)Crypto exchange where options flow showed heavy call selling
- MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR)Public company with notable Bitcoin exposure; put volumes outpaced calls
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)Bitcoin product cited with put volumes outpacing calls
- ThinkOrSwim (TD Ameritrade)Trading platform cited for options volume data
- Federal ReserveMonetary authority; rising rates and financing costs cited as macro headwinds
MarketMoodz Analysis
For investors, the 70 percentage-point divergence between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 is a signal to reassess relative risk exposure. A roughly 35% erosion in Bitcoin's relative strength while the Nasdaq posted a comparable rally means portfolios with concentrated crypto exposure have materially underperformed a tech-led equity bet. The options flow—about 100,000 puts versus 37,000 calls per ThinkOrSwim, a heavily traded 100-strike put expiring June 18, and reports of heavy call-selling on Coinbase—points to dealer positioning and client hedging that could amplify downside if macro conditions remain unfavorable.
The current split fits a broader rate-driven narrative. Crypto drawdowns in 2018 and 2022 coincided with Fed-tightening cycles; today rising yields in U.S. Treasuries and elsewhere have lifted financing costs and tilted capital toward productivity and AI narratives concentrated in the Nasdaq-100. That doesn’t prove causation, and the specific volume figures and chatter rely on vendor and anonymous-source data with limited public disclosure, but the pattern is consistent: higher rates compress the premium for scarcity assets and increase the appeal of growth names with visible earnings leverage.
What to watch next: Treasury yields and Fed guidance remain the top macro levers—any pause or dovish surprise could reduce the risk premium on Bitcoin. Track options open interest, the June 18 100-strike put, and flows into spot-BTC products and ETFs for signs of a sentiment inflection. Also monitor corporate and fund behavior—reports of strategy sellers liquidating Bitcoin, IPO announcements, and increased use of 0-day options or perpetual futures would all reshape short-term liquidity and risk premia. Note that the underlying volume and relative-strength calculations cited here come from specific vendors and unnamed sources and were not independently verifiable; treat the precise figures as directional rather than definitive.
Source: Original Article