MarketMoodz
Dividend-Growth Picks for Down Markets: ROL, LNG, MSFT
Trivariate Research tells CNBC that dividend-growth stocks could cushion portfolios during selloffs as traditional defensive sectors have shrunk dramatically in the S&P 500 over the past 25 years. The firm highlights names such as Rollins (ROL), Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Microsoft (MSFT) after screening for consistent dividend growth and above-trend sales and earnings forecasts.
Key Takeaways
- Trivariate says defensive sectors' share of S&P 500 market cap fell from roughly 30% to just over 10% over 25 years, increasing the case for dividend-growth tilts.
- Trivariate screens for companies with at least five years of dividend growth, forecasted sales growth ≥7% and earnings growth ≥10%.
- Rollins (ROL) appears on the list: dividend rose >10% last October to just over $0.18, yield ~1.4%, and shares are down about 10% in 2026.
- Cheniere Energy (LNG) also appears: dividend rose >10% to about $0.56, yield ~0.9%, stock up ~26% YTD with Q1 EBITDA guidance raised to $7.25–$7.75B.
- Other names cited by Trivariate include Microsoft (MSFT), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), AbbVie (ABBV) and Stryker (SYK).
People Involved
- Adam ParkerFounder, Trivariate Research
- George TongGoldman Sachs analyst (commenting on Rollins)
- Gabriel MoreenMizuho analyst (commenting on Cheniere)
Entities Involved
- Trivariate ResearchResearch firm that produced the dividend-growth screen
- Rollins, Inc. (ROL)Pest-control services company cited for dividend growth and durability
- Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)Liquefied natural gas exporter cited for dividend increases and strong volumes
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)Technology compounder listed among Trivariate's picks
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT)Healthcare company on Trivariate's list
- AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)Healthcare company on Trivariate's list
- Stryker Corporation (SYK)Medical-equipment company on Trivariate's list
- Goldman SachsInvestment bank whose analyst commented on Rollins
- MizuhoInvestment bank whose analyst commented on Cheniere
- CNBCPublisher of the roundup reporting Trivariate's findings
MarketMoodz Analysis
For investors, Trivariate's screen points to a pragmatic strategy: seek companies that combine steady dividend growth with above-average sales and earnings outlooks to lower drawdown risk while retaining upside potential. With the 10-year Treasury north of 4.6% and the S&P showing a pullback, pure yield plays look less attractive and traditional defensive sectors (utilities, staples, etc.) now occupy a much smaller slice of the market-cap pie—per Trivariate's estimate—so active selection of dividend compounders can serve as a defensive tilt without sacrificing growth.
The specific names matter because they illustrate different ways dividend growth can show up. Rollins offers a low-yield, recurring-income profile tied to a durable service business; analysts cited by the roundup call it a compounder resilient to AI-driven disruption, though cyclicality and execution remain real risks. Cheniere pairs a rising payout with operational momentum—Q1 volumes and a raised EBITDA guidance underpin its YTD rally—but it's exposed to commodity prices and geopolitics, and its consensus analyst targets imply roughly 23% upside, which is not guaranteed. Microsoft represents the blue-chip side of the screen: AI-driven revenue growth plus an expanding dividend, offset by valuation and regulatory scrutiny.
Caveats matter. The defensive-sector market-cap statistic and some company metrics originate from a single CNBC roundup of Trivariate's work and lack full methodological transparency; investors should verify screen rules and company data before allocating. Watch interest-rate moves, S&P breadth, and corporate guidance as near-term catalysts; if rates fall or defensives regain market share, the relative case for dividend-growth tilts will change. Position sizing and valuation discipline are essential—use dividend-growth ideas as part of a diversified portfolio, not a stand-alone hedge.
Source: Original Article