MarketMoodz
Midterm-Year Pattern in 2026 Could Drive Solid Returns, Says Ryan Detrick
An exclusive interview with Carson Group market strategist Ryan Detrick argues that 2026 could buck the typical midterm-year pattern and deliver solid gains. The piece frames 2026 as the second year of a second-term presidency under Donald Trump, and cites a Fed pause as a potential catalyst for upside.
Key Takeaways
- 2026 is a midterm year, historically a weaker phase in the four-year cycle (with SPY declines in 2018 and 2022).
- Detrick flags a potential Fed pause and a favorable second-year-of-term bias as drivers of gains.
- Carson Group forecasts 12%-15% S&P 500 growth for 2026.
- SPY trades around $714.01 at the time of the article, and midterm years can see larger peak-to-trough moves before a rebound.
People Involved
- Ryan Detrick Market Strategist, Carson Group
- Donald Trump President (subject of the second-term framing)
- Chris Katje Benzinga Reporter/Interview Editor
- George W. Bush Former U.S. President
- Barack Obama Former U.S. President
Entities Involved
- Carson Group Financial services firm
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Market benchmark referenced in the article
MarketMoodz Analysis
Investors should test the idea that midterm-year weakness is a given. If the Fed pauses and political dynamics align with a second-term bias, equities could re-rate through 2026, supported by earnings resilience and improving risk appetite.
Historically, midterm years have been challenging in the presidential cycle, with SPY experiencing declines in years such as 2018 and 2022. Since 1950, the second year of a second-term presidency has shown positive returns in all six observed cases, though the small sample size means the pattern is suggestive, not definitive.
Carson Group’s forecast of 12%-15% S&P 500 growth for 2026 highlights how the so-called midterm headwinds could yield outsized gains in the following year if policy and politics cooperate. Investors should monitor Fed guidance, election dynamics, and earnings momentum, then run scenario analyses to gauge potential drawdowns and upside.
Source: Original Article
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