Tech

Barclays: AI capex extends to 2028; Nvidia upside could surprise

Barclays argues the hyperscalers' AI capex cycle isn't peaking and could push through 2028, potentially well above consensus. The note ties Nvidia's upside to ramped cloud spending and suggests the stock may be cheaper than its longer-term earnings power.

📅 March 13, 2026
⏱️ 2 min read
Barclays: AI capex extends to 2028; Nvidia upside could surprise

Key Takeaways

  • Barclays' model projects the AI capex cycle lasting into 2028 and potentially higher than consensus.
  • NVIDIA trades around 17.5x CY27E P/E, but Barclays argues the multiple underprices future earnings power.
  • Consensus hyperscale capex is at least $225B too low for 2027–2028; the up-cycle could be magnitudes larger.
  • Barclays notes Vera Rubin, Vera Rubin Ultra, and Feynman GPUs could lift AI capex beyond current assumptions.
  • AI chip ASPs are above the pricing of older models, supporting AI semis stocks.

People Involved

  • Tom O’Malley Barclays analyst

Entities Involved

  • NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Semiconductor company leading AI GPUs
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Google parent; cloud and AI deployments
  • Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Cloud and AI platforms; AI deployments
  • OpenAI AI research and deployment partner/data source for Barclays’ view
  • Anthropic AI startup cited in OpenAI/Anthropic data source
  • The Information News outlet that reported data on OpenAI/Anthropic
  • Barclays PLC Investment bank and research firm issuing the note

MarketMoodz Analysis

Barclays’ framework implies Nvidia’s earnings trajectory could be stronger than what current prices imply, as the AI hardware cycle extends and cloud capex accelerates into 2028. A longer capex runway would support sustained GPU demand, potentially catalyzing a re-rating if CY27 and CY28 earnings align with the model’s assumptions.

The note contrasts Barclays’ view with the consensus that capex peaks earlier. If the scenario materializes, Nvidia could trade at a higher multiple than today, reflecting higher long-run earnings power, while investors weigh risks such as supply constraints and competition. The analysis also highlights tech megacap rotation, where Nvidia has underperformed in 2026, suggesting near-term price action around earnings could hinge on new AI capex signals.

Source: Original Article

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