On Holding slides 11% after record 2025 sales; 2026 guidance undershoots

MarketMoodz Analysis

The market greeted the quarter with a mix of optimism and concern: the up-front strength in Q4 and the full-year beat should support a higher multiple, but the 2026 guide undershoots consensus, tempering enthusiasm and triggering a stock retreat. Currency translation remains a key swing factor, as “constant currency” growth masks how spot sales translate when the currency moves against or for the CHF. For investors, the question is whether On can translate top-line strength into durable profitability given higher promotional costs and a pricing environment that appears tougher.

From a historical lens, premium footwear peers have wrestled with margin pressure as promotional activity rises and demand grows more discretionary. On’s long-term plan—3.55 billion CHF in sales and at least 18% EBITDA by 2026—signals ambitious growth but relies on continued regional expansion, notably in Asia-Pacific. The 23% CC growth implied for 2026 versus a consensus of around 3.7 billion CHF indicates a potential gap between management’s ambitions and buy-side expectations, which could weigh on valuation if realized growth proves slower.

What to watch next: track Q1 2026 results for early signs of margin resilience and the pace of APAC expansion, monitor currency hedging versus spot translation, and observe promotional spend as pricing dynamics evolve. If 2026 performance accelerates in the second half or if currency tailwinds emerge, On could still close the gap to consensus and restore investor confidence.