Retail

JPMorgan Sees Tax Cuts Boosting Retail; Costco Poised to Lead

JPMorgan analysts forecast a more-than-1% lift to core U.S. retail sales in 2026, with Costco set to outperform peers. The note ties a tax-refund windfall to stronger consumer spending and COST’s mix and footprint give it a clear edge.

📅 February 06, 2026
⏱️ 2 min read
JPMorgan Sees Tax Cuts Boosting Retail; Costco Poised to Lead

Key Takeaways

  • JPMorgan expects a >1% rise in core U.S. retail sales in 2026, strongest during tax-refund season
  • Costco is positioned to outperform retailers due to its mid- to high-end member base and broad geographic footprint
  • Numerator data suggest BJ’s Wholesale and Walmart’s Sam’s Club have more low-end exposure; COST benefits from spring tax stimulus
  • Costco shares up ~15% in 2026 year-to-date; 2025 down ~6% after a rally in 2023–24

People Involved

  • Christopher HorversJPMorgan Analyst

Entities Involved

  • Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)Major wholesale club retailer
  • BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ)Wholesale club retailer
  • Walmart Inc. (WMT)Mass retailer with Sam's Club
  • Numerator, Inc.Data analytics provider used for exposure insights

MarketMoodz Analysis

If JPMorgan’s forecast holds, COST could see a meaningful earnings lift from a tax-driven consumer windfall, supporting stronger sales and potentially wider margins as cost-to-serve dynamics normalize post-pandemic. The positioning—mid- to high-end member base and national footprint—gives Costco a leverage advantage versus BJ’s and Walmart’s Sam’s Club in spring tax-season buying, according to the note and Numerator data.

This echoes a broader 2017–2018 tax-cut cycle, when consumer spend surged on refund checks and job markets improved. The current backdrop features a similar tax-tailwind but with different inflation and rate dynamics, so the durability of any uplift will depend on how quickly refunds land and how consumers allocate windfalls between essentials and big-ticket purchases.

What to watch next: verify official IRS withholding guidance for 2025 and 2026, monitor Costco’s outbound take-rate on higher-ticket items, and track broader retail data for signs of a generalized uplift versus retailer-specific exposure. Cross-check(NUMERATOR) data against other data providers and JPMorgan’s own notes for attribution accuracy.

Source: Original Article

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