MarketMoodz
Linde sinks on conservative 2026 guidance; why we keep our 1 rating (LIN)
Linde shares fell after the company issued a conservative 2026 EPS guidance, even as Q4 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings beat expectations. The backlog hit a record $10 billion, underscoring pockets of demand, but the midpoint of the 2026 outlook implies limited earnings upside unless volumes recover.
Key Takeaways
- Q4 2025 revenue of $8.76B, up ~6% YoY, beating consensus $8.64B.
- Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.20, up ~5% YoY, beating consensus by $0.02.
- 2026 guidance for 6–9% adjusted EPS growth to $17.40–$17.90, midpoint $17.65 vs. consensus $17.86.
- End-2025 backlog at a record $10B, including >$500M for rocket-propellant contracts.
- 2025 buybacks total $4.6B; Q4 $1.4B; CEO Sanjiv Lamba bought $1M of shares on Dec 8 at $396.
People Involved
- Sanjiv LambaCEO, Linde plc
Entities Involved
- Linde plc (LIN)Industrial gases company; subject of report
- SpaceXRocket-launch company; potential IPO driver and space-industry milestone
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)Potential semiconductor fabrication project partner
MarketMoodz Analysis
Linde’s 2026 guidance is clearly conservative. A 6–9% EPS growth range to $17.40–$17.90, with a midpoint of $17.65, sits below the $17.86 consensus and signals limited upside absent stronger volumes or pricing power. The backlog’s record level, especially with rocket-propellant work, suggests demand resilience in targeted end-markets but not a broad-margin expansion in the near term.
Historically, industrial gas peers’ outcomes hinge on capex cycles in energy, manufacturing and electronics. Linde’s regional mix shows Americas and Europe exposure, with volume declines in some segments offset by pricing/mix and currency tailwinds. The market will watch Q1 guidance, progress on the SpaceX and semiconductor bids, and how any ramp in end-market activity translates into margin relief or further disappointment in the guidance.
Source: Original Article
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