Finance

January Jobs Delayed to Feb. 11; ADP Signals Tepid Payroll Gain

The January nonfarm payrolls release has been pushed to Feb. 11 because of a brief government shutdown. ADP data released today show private payrolls rising by 22,000 in January, a tepid start to the year and a potential constraint on wage growth signals. The delay in official data also shifts how traders gauge the Fed's next move.

📅 February 04, 2026
⏱️ 2 min read
January Jobs Delayed to Feb. 11; ADP Signals Tepid Payroll Gain

Key Takeaways

  • January nonfarm payrolls are now scheduled for Feb 11 due to the shutdown.
  • ADP private payrolls rose 22,000 in January, suggesting softer wage growth.
  • CPI and real earnings data are delayed to Feb 13, delaying the inflation signal.
  • Economists forecast January payrolls to rise by 60,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

People Involved

  • No specific individuals mentioned

Entities Involved

  • ADP - Automatic Data Processing, Inc.Provider of January private payroll data
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Government agency releasing official payroll data (delayed)
  • CNBCOriginal report source

MarketMoodz Analysis

The delayed January data complicates the Fed's policy planning and market pricing. A softer January payrolls picture from ADP increases the probability that wage growth slows, potentially allowing for a less aggressive rate path if the official numbers corroborate the trend.

Historically, data delays from government shutdowns have added volatility to short-term forecasts as investors recalibrate on fresh signals. Traders will be watching wage trajectories, job intensity by sector, and the pace of unemployment changes for clues on the Fed's next move.

With CPI now pushed to Feb 13 and JOLTS timing uncertain, the market will rely on every incoming data point to gauge rate expectations. Next steps include the January CPI, the unemployment rate, and sectoral payroll breakdowns to confirm whether the soft momentum in December extends into January.

Source: Original Article

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