Tech

ASML posts record orders, 2026 sales guidance beats estimates on AI demand

ASML logged a record €13.2 billion in Q4 2025 bookings, underscoring robust AI-driven demand for its lithography systems. The company also lifted its 2026 net sales outlook to €34-39 billion (midpoint €36.5B), beating consensus, and unveiled a €12 billion share buyback to be executed by end-2028.

📅 January 28, 2026
⏱️ 2 min read
ASML posts record orders, 2026 sales guidance beats estimates on AI demand

Key Takeaways

  • Q4 2025 bookings hit a record €13.2 billion.
  • 2026 net sales guidance set at €34-39 billion, midpoint €36.5B, above €35.1B consensus.
  • Q4 2025 net sales €9.7B; net profit €2.84B vs €3.01B expected.
  • ASML will buy back €12B of shares by 31 Dec 2028.
  • China revenue to be ~20% of total in 2026, down from ~33% in 2025.

People Involved

  • Roger DassenChief Financial Officer, ASML

Entities Involved

  • ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)Lithography equipment leader
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)Major customer context
  • Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930)Major customer context
  • SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS)Major customer context
  • Barclays plc (BARC)Analyst firm providing note

MarketMoodz Analysis

Investors get a clearer sign of an AI-fueled capex cycle: ASML’s record quarterly bookings and higher 2026 guidance validate sustained demand for leading-edge lithography equipment as AI infrastructure expands. The €12 billion buyback underpins confidence in the earnings trajectory even as Q4 profit missed the street’s estimate.

The 2026 guidance sits above consensus and signals durable capital expenditure from major chipmakers, even as China revenue exposure drifts lower to about 20% of total sales. This aligns with broader trends in memory and logic capex, where memory-makers such as Samsung and SK Hynix are seen expanding capacity, potentially supporting another leg of demand for EUV systems. Regulatory/export-control risk in China remains a watch item for visibility into geographic mix and long-term growth.

Source: Original Article

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