Real Estate

Pending home sales fall 9.3% in December, clouding 2026 housing outlook

Pending home sales fell 9.3% month over month in December, the National Association of Realtors said, clouding the 2026 housing outlook. With mortgage rates hovering around 6.25% and inventory remaining tight, demand is failing to rebound as buyers navigate affordability and uncertainty. The South was the only region to post a year-over-year sales uptick.

📅 January 21, 2026
⏱️ 2 min read
Pending home sales fall 9.3% in December, clouding 2026 housing outlook

Key Takeaways

  • -9.3% drop in pending sales in December (MoM) per NAR
  • -Inventory at 1.18 million, down 9% from November and the lowest of 2025
  • -Inventory up 12% YoY from December 2024, but still historically tight
  • -All U.S. regions declined MoM; the South posted a YoY increase
  • -Mortgage rates around 6.25% for the 30-year fixed loan in December

People Involved

  • Lawrence YunChief Economist, National Association of Realtors

Entities Involved

  • National Association of Realtors (NAR)Real estate trade association
  • CNBCNews outlet that summarized the data

MarketMoodz Analysis

The December drop in pending sales signals persistent demand constraints even as supply remains tight. With inventories near historic lows and mortgage rates near 6.25%, affordability remains a hurdle for many potential buyers, delaying closings and keeping pressure on housing-related equities and developer confidence.

Historically, inventories have been the main constraint in the housing market, and the December data show a 12% year-over-year increase in inventory from December 2024, even as current stock remains tight. The South's YoY uptick stands out in an otherwise soft regional picture, underscoring how local dynamics can diverge from national trends.

As the year turns, watch for shifts in mortgage rates, inventory levels, and builder activity. If rates stay around 6% and inventories fail to rise meaningfully, demand could remain tepid into 2026. Note the data caveat: the report cites 39 days on market as an average, while the underlying figures point to a median of 39 days—NAR data should clarify this discrepancy.

Source: Original Article

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